We’re less than six weeks away from Selection Sunday, but there’s still plenty of intrigue on one line, with six teams firmly in contention for the top seed, and a few others lurking. And Purdue is the only team with a firm grip on one seed. Let’s take a quick look at the other candidates.
• Alabama – The Crimson Tide is still a potential top seed, despite a crushing loss in Oklahoma over the weekend. They ranked in the top five in all team sheet metrics, won six in Q1, went 6-1 in true road games, and currently sit 11-3 in the Q1/Q2 games.
• Arizona – The Wildcats have a spectacular 7 wins in Q1, including 5 wins in Q1A. Arizona is 8-2 in the Road/Neutral contest and 10-3 in the top two quadrants, all of which contribute to the top of the resume index, but is slightly behind in the quality index. All three losses were against non-tournament teams, which hurt their case a bit.
• Houston – The Cougars’ case started in the top two on all quality metrics, along with a perfect 8-0 mark in road/neutral games, including wins over Virginia and neutral-court wins over St. Mary’s. increase. A home loss to Temple in the third quarter hurt, but Houston is still 9-1 in games in the first and second quarters.
• Kansas – The Jayhawks have the most losses of any of these teams, but they lead the nation in first quarter wins (8), including four wins in the first quarter. 12 wins and 4 losses in two quadrants. Many of his KU best wins have come away from home. This allowed us to rank highly on all outcome-based metrics.
• Tennessee – Like Houston, Tennessee has strong NETs and quality metrics, but Vols are also just 7-3 in the top two quadrants. A neutral-court victory over Kansas would sit nicely with Saturday’s win over Texas at home, but an early loss to Colorado would not go particularly well.
Here’s a quick rundown on how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on NET ratings.
· Quad 1: Home vs. Ranks 1-30 / Neutral vs. Ranks 1-50 / Road vs. Ranks 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. Ranks 31-75 / Neutral vs. Ranks 51-100 / Road vs. Ranks 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. Ranks 76-160 / Neutral vs. Ranks 101-200 / Road vs. Ranks 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. Ranks 161-351 / Neutral vs. Ranks 201-351 / Road vs. Ranks 241-351
bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through January 30, 2023. Following the bracket, I’ve included quick notes on his final four games and his first four.
| Louisville (South) | Kansas City (Midwest) | |
| Columbus – March 17/19 | Birmingham – March 16/18 | |
| 1) Purdue | 1) Alabama | |
| 16) F. Dickinson / SE Louisiana | 16) TN-Martin/UMES | |
| 8) North Carolina St. |
8) Northwest | |
| 9) Missouri | 9) Florida Atlantic | |
| Orlando – March 16/18 | Albany – March 17/19 | |
| Five) connecticut |
Five) St. Mary’s | |
| 12) Oral Roberts | 12) freedom |
|
| Four) TCU | Four) Marquette | |
| 13) UC Santa Barbara | 13) St. Louis | |
| Denver – March 17/19 | Columbus – March 17/19 | |
| 6) san diego street | 6) Illinois | |
| 11) Pittsburgh | 11) USC | |
| 3) texas | 3) iowa street | |
| 14) corrugated | 14) Furman | |
| Sacramento – March 16/18 | Birmingham – March 16/18 | |
| 7) auburn | 7) duke | |
| Ten) Boise Street | Ten) Maryland | |
| 2) UCLA | 2) houston | |
| 15) E. Washington |
15) Vermont | |
| Las Vegas (West) | New York (East) | |
| Denver – March 17/19 | Greensboro – March 17/19 | |
| 1) Arizona | 1) Tennessee | |
| 16) milwaukee | 16) Southern | |
| 8) michigan street | 8) Iowa | |
| 9) Clemson | 9) clayton | |
| Orlando – March 16/18 | Albany – March 17/19 | |
| Five) Indiana | Five) Rutgers | |
| 12) Charleston | 12) kent street | |
| Four) Baylor | Four) Xavier | |
| 13) utah valley | 13) Louisiana | |
| Sacramento – March 16/18 | Greensboro – March 17/19 | |
| 6) Miami (FL) | 6) providence | |
| 11) Oklahoma/Wisconsin |
11) Kentucky/West Virginia | |
| 3) Gonzaga | 3) Virginia | |
| 14) Princeton | 14) Southern Illinois | |
| Des Moines – March 16/18 | Des Moines – March 16/18 | |
| 7) new mexico | 7) north carolina | |
| Ten) Arkansas | Ten) memphis | |
| 2) Kansas | 2) Kansas Street | |
| 15) Siena | 15) UNC-Asheville |
Last For Inn:
west virginia – A 2-6 mark on a Big 12 play by itself does not matter, as the Committee does not consider meeting records. Following Saturday’s victory over Auburn, the Mountaineers are now 3-8 in games in the first quarter with no other losses, and he’s won three in the second quarter. They are ranked in the top 25 of NET and have solid quality metrics.
kentucky – A big win in Tennessee keeps Kentucky on the field at this point, but the Wildcats are just 1-6 in the first quarter and lost at home to South Carolina in the fourth quarter. A win over Texas A&M serves a bit for bubble purposes, as does a strong predictive metric, but with his 4-6 in the first and second quarters, Kentucky’s grip on the overall bid is by no means strong. not.
Oklahoma – Saturday’s big win against Alabama gave the Sooners a big boost to their resume. They also beat West Virginia at home, with neutral court victories over Florida and Seton Hall. Predictive metrics tend to be strong for his six wins in Q1 and Q2. That said, Oklahoma is only 8-9 in games outside of Q4 and has only one true road win despite a 5-5 mark in the road/neutral contest.
Wisconsin – Badgers drop to 74th place in the NET, with poor predictive metrics compared to other bubble teams. They’re 2-6 in the first quarter, but the two wins were both in Marquette and Iowa. Wisconsin also has four of his wins in the second quarter, including home wins against Maryland and Pennsylvania, and a neutral his-court win against USC. Tyler Wall’s injury will be considered by the committee, but not a free pass to the game Wisconsin missed and lost, and the Badgers have just 7 games outside of the fourth quarter heading into February. 8 wins and 8 losses.
First Four Out:
Nevada – The Wolf Pack’s four best wins, with a 4-5 road mark, were all at home. Nevada is 6-6 in the top two quadrants and has two wins in Q1. He also has no bad losses and strong outcome-based metrics, but the average predictive metric is in his early 60s.
pen state – It’s hard to see the Big Ten get more than 9 teams on the field, but the Nittany Lions are a solid mix. All of their result-based predictive metrics are solid, but not spectacular, but there have been no bad losses and he has four wins in Q1/Q2, including wins in Illinois and wins at home against Indiana and Iowa. doing. This Illinois win is PSU’s only true road win, and one they need to fix to get on the right side of the bubble.
Texas A&M – The Aggies have played very well since the SEC game began, but the strength of their non-conference schedule and lack of quality in non-conference wins have worked against A&M. They are 4-4 in the top two quadrants with a road win in Auburn, a home win in Missouri, and a sweep in Florida. Eight of his 15 wins for the Aggies fell in the fourth quarter, and he lost one in the third and another in the fourth.
Arizona – A neutral-court win over Clayton falls to Q1A. So far, it’s the only win ASU has against a team with a large combination. The Sun Devils have four true road wins, including wins in Oregon and Colorado, but lost to Texas Southern in the fourth quarter. The predictive indicators are all in his mid-60s, and the strength of his non-meeting schedule is in his early 200s.
meeting breakdown:
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Big 12 (8): Baylor, Iowa Street, Kansas, Kansas Street, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, West Virginia
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Miami Florida, North Carolina, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia
SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Big East (5): Connecticut, Clayton, Marquette, Providence, Xavier
Mountain West (3): Boise, New Mexico, San Diego
Pac-12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, USC
American (2): Houston, Memphis
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Atlantic 10: St. Louis
US East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Liberty
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: UNC Asheville
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Colonial: Charleston
Conference USA: Florida Atlantic
Horizon: Milwaukee
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Siena
MAC: Kent
MEAC: East Coast Maryland
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: TN-Martin
Patriot: Colgate
South: Furman
Southland: SE Louisiana
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sunbelt: Louisiana
WAC: Utah Valley
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Submit to: 2022-2023 Bracket Studies
