Do the Raptors Need to Reset Before the Trade Deadline?

The Toronto Raptors are upset. First, they lost two close battles to Magic, who lived in the basement. They then lost to the Kings by one point and against the Nets to Kyrie He to Irving’s buzzer beater. And a Warriors team without Stephen Curry kicked them out of his arena at Scotiabank, and the 76ers beat them in overtime.

All those losses dropped the Raptors to 10th in the East with a 13-18 record. The Raptors will visit the rising Knicks on Wednesday, followed by challenges from the Cavaliers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Suns, Pacers and Bucks, who will see him reach the midpoint with a record in the 16-25 or lower range. There is a possibility.

of unfortunate bulls— one place below Toronto in the Eastern standings — is the most obvious number in the NBA. Blow it up! A contender, but the Raptors aren’t far behind. They’ve fallen well short of expectations after claiming the East side’s no. I was.

Instead, the Raptors are rotten. You don’t have to look far to identify the first problem.

Alongside a handful of rebuilding and/or tanking teams, the Raptors have one of the worst half-court offenses in the league. remains corrupt!) They try to sidestep the problem by avoiding standard half-court sets as much as possible thanks to their most powerful transition attack in the league.

But they are undermined by a terrible combination of not enough playmaking and not enough shooting. If they are not allowed to run in open space, Toronto’s offense is often bogged down without being creative enough to generate the best looks.

The Raptors rank second in isolation frequency in the NBA, behind Mavericks’ Luka Doncic-centered offense, according to Second Spectrum. But the Raptors rank 26th in isolation effectiveness, averaging just 0.88 points if an isolation produces a shot, foul, or turnover. teams (again excluding the Clippers) are best suited to turn those plays into points.

With most of the rotation populated by non-shooters, and guards Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. far below career standards, the Raptors suffer from subpar shooting everywhere on the court. According to glass cleaning, they rank 17th in finishing at the rim, 24th in midrange, 27th in corner 3 and 27th in break 3 or more. Malachi Flynn is the only rotation player to achieve league-average percentages even from distance.

Still, to some extent, this level of aggressive challenge is normal at this point. Since Kawhi Leonard left after the 2018-19 championship season, the Raptors have ranked 15th, 16th, 16th, and currently 14th in offensive efficiency, according to Cleaning the Grass.

The problem this season is that a half-hearted offense is paired with an uninspiring defense. His 6-foot-9-inch band of thieves for the Raptors has resulted in the highest turnover rate in the league, his double advantage of denying opponents points and creating fast-breaking opportunities. But that approach is only profitable about 20% of the time. The remaining 80% of him are in dire condition.

If the Raptors don’t force turnovers, they foul a lot and allow for a very high shooting percentage. Toronto ranks his 29th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage. Be expected According to Second Spectrum, an opponent’s eFG% is based on factors such as shots and defender position. This is because the Raptors give up many high value shots behind his line at the rim and three-pointers. According to CtG, only Blazers and Magic are reducing their mid-ranger numbers. And the centerless Raptors don’t have the personnel to mess with these juicy looks. The opposing team has him shooting 70% at the rim against Toronto, his third-highest mark in the league.

(Precious Achiuwa’s absence hurts here, as he’s only played 12 games due to an ankle injury. Cristian Coloco is promising but not ready. The 7-foot rookie has at least 400 minutes left. leading all players in foul rate, averaging 6 whistles per inning (75 possessions).

The Raptors play a high-risk, high-reward style of play, and risk wins. After a rough weekend, the Raptors fell to 19th in earned run average, according to his CtG, which is the mark from the 2020-21 campaign.

Its 2020-21 season is a useful reference point as the 2022-23 version continues to lose. Trade deadline approaching 89 percent Of the NBA players currently in the deal, the Raptors could be major participants in the market this season.After all Uji Masai Not scary to complete a major midseason deal.

That happened in 2020-21 when the Raptors, playing in Tampa due to COVID, took a strategic step after realizing they couldn’t play meaningfully. and almost traded Kyle Lowry in exchange for Trent, who is six years younger than Powell. And after starting 17-17, he finished the season with a 10-28 run, including a 1-10 losing sprint to improve his lottery odds. Stealth tanks, including late-season starters like Freddy Gillespie, Jalen Harris, and Stanley Johnson, were rewarded with no. 4 picks and the arrival of Scotty Barnes.

What will that pivot look like this season? First of all, Barnes isn’t going anywhere. The Rookie of the Year incumbent has become something of a lightning rod this season due to inconsistent performances. But for all of Sturm and Drang on Barnes’ development, he should do well in the long run, and Pascal Siakam’s injury left him with the extra responsibility he had to take on. Since Siakam returned in late November from a 10-game absence, Barnes has put his season-long numbers back on track in his rookie campaign.

Beyond Barnes, the Raptors are unlikely to move either Siakam or OG Anunoby. Siakam is a contender for his third All-His NBA nomination in his four seasons, and should be All-Defensive his team if Anunoby plays enough games. But in a true breakup scenario, where the Raptors decide to completely rebuild around a young Barnes, especially with Siakam reaching free agency after next season, Anunoby could decline his player option to join him. This duo may move because there is.

Siakam and Anunoby intention Many teams will be interested if it becomes available for trading. Anunoby fits especially well in New Orleans and Memphis, and Siakam in the latter city. young talent When draft equity It’s necessary to make a blockbuster, but it can be difficult to match salaries, especially Siakam’s $35 million.

Conversely, the Raptors’ guard seems much more accessible. VanVleet and Trent both have player options for next season, but are likely to decline to become free agents this offseason, so they won’t stay as much in the Raptors’ long-term plans as the core members of the 6.9-foot crew. Maybe.

When it comes to VanVleet, there aren’t many candidates needing a lead guard, and Minnesota, the likely candidate most in need of point guard help, doesn’t have a pick to trade. However, some fine fits still occur.

Anthony Davis’ month-long absence may limit his appetite for a win-now trade, but it’s an obvious choice for the Lakers given their pressing need for perimeter scoring. It also made sense in Dallas, and his off-ball experience playing next to Lowry served as the Mavericks’ much-needed replacement for Jalen Brunson. (Hey, Branson replaced VanVleet as the Knicks’ target guard in free agency, so it would only be correct if VanVleet replaced Branson elsewhere.) Game streak! Including his two in Boston!—If you want to solve the ubiquitous guard problem with veterans, VanVleet will do well in Orlando for the rest of this season and beyond.

But if Ujiri decides to sell by the deadline, of all the current Raptors, Trent seems the most likely to move.There are three reasons for that. Slumping on both sides of the ball, he was out of the starting line-up after manager Nick Nurse. Said Trent’s defensive sluggishness no longer meant “he’s not a good fit for us”. Third, he has a payday coming up this summer. athleticEric Colleen of Notewith the Raptors anticipating extensions for Siakam, Anunoby and Barnes over the next few years, Trent could be the odd guy.

Still, Trent has profiled as a devastating defender when involved, and as a microwave scorer, he remains a career 38% shooter from distance despite all the inconsistencies this season. Basically every team except the Celtics can use another two-way guard off the bench. So it’s not hard to imagine him being one of them (the Bucks and Suns are particularly good). The reappearance of torrents.

However, regardless of what level of sales Ujiri decides to make, sticking small with Trent alone, trading VanVleet as well, or completing a true blockbuster with All-NBA talent would be a disappointing loss. Some form of shakeup seems to become clearer each time. This dying Raptors team needs one. The situation is not as dire as in Chicago. At least the Raptors have a core of two-way players and a future centerpiece for Barnes. However, they haven’t been able to live up to their potential this season in the slightest, and pursuing a strategic setback to reset for next season will see them striving for a play-inverse against a team that can’t score. It makes a lot more sense than

Statistics for Sunday’s game.