Five reasons why Michigan can turn their season around, make NCAA tournament

It’s been a roller coaster ride for the Michigan men’s basketball team this season. Lost in overtime in Iowa City Thursday night.

We are almost halfway through the 2022-23 season. Michigan Wolverines When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, we’re looking at it from the outside.

As Part of Joe Lunaldi’s bracket theory, Michigan didn’t make the first four outs or the next.

NET ranking, an algorithm that rewards teams for beating other better teams, Michigan is ranked 77th as of Jan. 13, completely out of the 68-team NCAA Tournament picture. Its low ranking is due in large part to the fact that Michigan is 0-5 in games against Quad 1 teams and is losing against Quad 4 teams (Central Michigan)

It may feel like the sky is dropping to some degree, but with the regular season almost halfway over, Michigan still has some time to improve its tournament resume. The problem is that these losses cannot add up. Michigan has a bad habit of losing back-to-back straight after they gain a bit of momentum.

Here are five reasons Michigan can turn their season around and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan has plenty of chances to win in quad 1

The conference is objectively worse than last year, but the double-edged sword of playing in the Big Ten is playing quality competition almost every night

As a reminder, the NET rankings only allow 3 wins for Quad 1: a home game against a top 30 RPI (Rating Power Index) team, a neutral game against a top 50 team, and an away game against a top 75 team. . Basically, your tournament resume will be greatly improved, especially if you can beat good teams on the road.

RPI Ranking (a metric created by combining a team’s win percentage, opponent’s average win percentage, and opponent’s average win percentage) is updated daily, but as of January 13, Michigan will pick up Quad 1 wins chronologically. Here are the opportunities: :

-Maryland (34th in RPI ranking)

-Home vs Purdue (5th)

-Pennsylvania State University (66 days)

-Northwest (56th)

-Wisconsin (35th)

– Home vs. Michigan (The 22nd)

-so Rutgers (48th)

– Illinois (61st)

– Big Ten Tournament neutral game (opponent TBD)

Now, those are nine tough games (excluding conference tournaments), and we can’t expect Michigan to win them all. But if Michigan can win 5-7 he suddenly has a much improved tournament resume.

they don’t turn the ball over

Michigan only Spin the ball 9.4 times per gamemarking third in the nation and in the Big Ten, behind only Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing to note is that defensively, Michigan does not force mass turnovers.they Force only 11.44 turnovers per game, the 304th mark in Vermont and the country. This is why their margin of turnovers (2.0, his 81st in the country) is lower than what turnovers per game implies.

Nevertheless, Michigan will keep many games close if they don’t turn the ball over.

They have one of the best centers in the country and need to be more consistent.

Teams with dominant players always have a chance to win games and improve their tournament history, and Hunter Dickinson is just as dominant as them.

Dickinson is still Michigan’s top scorer and rebounder with impressive numbers (18.3 points, 8.5 rebounds per game, 59.3 FG%, 38.9% 3pt%, 70.5% FT%). all of his counting stats— aside from blocks and 3-point percentage — down from last season.

Eye tests confirm these numbers. Dickinson is still objectively Michigan’s best player, but he’s not consistent around the basket and has forced several shots into his post.

Michigan has played through Dickinson, but he has to be a little more consistent to help them score a few more quality wins.

Kobe Buffkin improved dramatically

Last season, one of the biggest reasons Michigan was able to soar in the second half of the season was Eli Brooks, a 10-15 point and always-on-the-points-to-be-defensive consistency.

Jett Howard (15.5 points, 38.7% 3pt%) is Michigan’s second-most scoring player, putting in a 34-point performance, but struggled defensively in the late game. I’m here.

Kobe Buffkin (12.2 points per game, 1.4 steals per game) Michigan’s most improved player on both sides, and reliable in the late game. Scoring late in the game and shutting out the opposing team’s best guards is crucial to his play in the Michigan conference.

It’s a young team, but they have a lot of experience closing out games.

The loss to Iowa saw a late-game sequence made possible by two freshmen who increased their playing time as the year went on.

With three minutes remaining, Doug McDaniel made a clutch three to extend Michigan’s lead to five.

Clearly, Michigan lost the game, but the more close Michigan plays, the more confidence-building possessions this young team will have. Hopefully, as this season progresses, they’ll get better at crunch time and learn how to close out their games.