Victor Wenbanyama’s gobsmacking performance in Las Vegas in early October had two important consequences. First, the 7-foot-4 Frenchman has established himself as the best draft candidate since LeBron his James. Next, he officially started his race as a tank in his NBA 2022-23 season.
“The losing team is trying to tank difficult This season’, our Kevin O’Connor I have written. athleticJohn Hollinger Observed After Wembanyama’s spectacular show in Vegas, “tanking just got cool.”1 general manager told ESPN French teenagers will set off ‘a race to the bottom like we’ve never seen’.
But that supposedly unprecedented race has yet to materialize. The Jazz have a record of 6 wins and 3 losses which puts him third in the West. The Spurs are 5-3 and lead the league in assist percentage. The Thunder are on a four-game winning streak, including wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.
In fact, three of Cleaning the Glass’s five worst net-rated teams can’t even control their first-round picks this season. The Clippers, Nets, and Lakers.
This nascent trend probably won’t continue once the low-fidelity shooting numbers have smoothed out, but it’s also clear that would-be tankers aren’t yet worried about sacrificing valuable lottery odds. If that were the case, the Jazz would have already traded all their veterans, and the Thunder would have already identified Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s annual mysterious injury.
But how many wins are too many for a team hoping to get a real shot at Wembanyama’s Tank-a-rama?
As a reminder, the NBA flattened out the lottery odds in 2019. Now the team with his three record worst has a similarly diminished chance of getting a top pick. Overall, the new odds make the worst 3 teams (especially the worst 2) less likely to win the lottery, while teams 4-13 (especially those in the 6-9 range) are less likely to win the lottery. more likely to be elected to Previous.
NBA Lottery Odds
| slot | old odds | new odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| slot | old odds | new odds | Change |
| 1 | 25.0% | 14.0% | -11.0% |
| 2 | 19.9% | 14.0% | -5.9% |
| 3 | 15.6% | 14.0% | -1.6% |
| Four | 11.9% | 12.5% | +0.6% |
| Five | 8.8% | 10.5% | +1.7% |
| 6 | 6.3% | 9.0% | +2.7% |
| 7 | 4.3% | 7.5% | +3.2% |
| 8 | 2.8% | 6.0% | +3.2% |
| 9 | 1.7% | 4.5% | +2.8% |
| Ten | 1.1% | 3.0% | +1.9% |
| 11 | 0.8% | 2.0% | +1.2% |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.5% | +0.8% |
| 13 | 0.6% | 1.0% | +0.4% |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0% |
So how many wins does a team need to win to take advantage of these lottery odds? We built a model based on the final standings of each. This model predicts the pre-draw positions a team might have and allows you to predict a no. Select one odds per winning total.
The model shows little difference in no. 1 Pick Equity with less than 25 wins:
- With 10 wins, the team has a 14.0% chance of not getting first place. 1.
- 14.0% with 15 wins.
- 13.8% with 20 wins.
- 11.6% with 25 wins.
- 7.7% with 30 wins.
- 2.7% with 35 wins.
- 0.6% for 40 wins.
In other words, any team competing for Wenbanyama’s draft rights should not win more than 25 wins this season to avoid being in the lottery outline.
After 25 wins, especially 30, each additional win comes at a significant cost. But there are minimal penalties before the team reaches that point. With 10 wins, the team has at most 14% chance of winning the lottery, and with 21 wins (more than double!), he still has a 14% chance after rounding up.
This breakdown explains why a team predicted to finish worst in the league shouldn’t sweat a surprise early win. They’re far from his 25-win mark where the wins really start to hurt. Also why the worst example of tanking seen this season comes not from a “race to the bottom” but from his 35-win (ish) pace team that threw in the towel in March and his April. also shows. Each additional win between 30 and 35 costs 1 percentage point of the predicted number. 1 pick odds.
The extra win was doing much more damage to team No. 1 pick hope before the league evens out the lottery distribution. For example, with the new lottery system, there is no difference. 1-pick odds between 10 and 25 wins are only 2.4%. Under the old system, the difference was 13.8 points, that is, 6 times the cost.
This graph is a visual representation of the changes brought about by the new lottery structure. See how the red line (which shows odds for old lotteries) drops much more rapidly. On the other hand, the blue line (which shows the odds for the new lottery) flattens out for a while, then tapers off.
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The same pattern applies to any team that wants to be the No. 1 or No. 2 pick this season. That’s if guard Scoot Henderson sees generational promise. (Can a draft class, by definition, have multiple “generational” prospects?) Again, under the new system, it’s not until the mid-twenties that a win really starts to hurt a team’s chances. there is no.
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Of course, it increases the chances of choosing no. It’s not just one or two draft benefits that come from teams finishing with worse records. The team with the worst record in the league could fall for just picking no. Tanking harder also means better slots in the second round of the draft.
But most of the value of tanking comes from the high likelihood of landing a top pick. much more impactful than the rest.With the new system, every team has good No chance. 1 pick. Unless there are multiple picks from the trade, even the worst teams have only a 14% chance of getting Wembanyama’s serve. Here are other NBA events that have a 14% chance of happening.
- Kawhi Leonard misses free throw
- Possession ends with a turnover
- Includes a shot from 36 feet away
Of course, these events can also occur.they too decide on a titleBut none are highly likely. So fans of early overachievers like the Jazz, Spurs, and Thunder needn’t worry about missing an opportunity to draft a franchise-changing prospect like Wenban Yama. With the odds of nudging the No. 1 pick, there’s little reason to worry about a frenzied sprint to the bottom.
