NBA Finals 2022: How Celtics and Warriors are changing the perception of what makes a bad contract

Summer 2019, Houston Rockets Attached two first round picks and two first round swaps to trade Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook, and since then many theories have been provided to explain the disastrous deal. .. He and James Harden are reportedly unsuccessful. Paul was aging and prone to injury.After making a series of losses Golden State Warriors, Houston may not be aware of the need to try the same thing three times and expect different results. However, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon provided a slightly more direct explanation of the episode “The Lowe Post.”

“The deal was done because Tillman Fetita wanted it. I thought Chris Paul’s deal was the worst I’ve ever seen in business or sports,” McMahon said. Said.. None of this denies other possible explanations for trade, but there is something internal to this rationale. Fertita did more than just try to make the right basketball decision. He thought it was toxic, so he was trying to throw away the distressed property. It’s not a particularly unique stance in the NBA.

Daryl Morey was the general manager of Feltita when Paul’s deal took place. A year later he moved to Philadelphia, 76ers.. What was his first move? He used the first round of picks to trade Al Horford and traded to Oklahoma City for the remaining three years of the $ 109 million deal signed by Elton Brand just a year ago. See the list of the NBA’s worst contracts. The first thing you notice is how many of those players are trading. John Wall. Kristaps Porzingis. Davis Bertans. If Russell Westbrook moves this offseason, he will play all of his five-year Supermax contracts with different teams. If the team identifies one of its contracts as toxic, the team will do everything in its power to dump it before it gets worse.

Still, this season has been defined in many ways by players who were once considered overpaid.Paul’s Sands We have won two games from last season’s championship and 64 games this season. I myself After Jarrett Allen signed a $ 100 million deal this offseason, it was called overpayment and I wasn’t the only one. He made an all-star game. Horford is at one end of the final. Thunder He was banished later in the season to avoid the risk of injury that would make his contract even more unpalatable. The other is Andrew Wiggins. This is the previous overall number one included in D’Angelo Russell’s transaction for salary matching purposes. These players have little in common. They represent the spectrum of overall age and location. Only the disproved notion that their covenant is more harmful than good is what connects them.

It is ironic to consider this as the inefficiency of a growing market, as in theory market inefficiencies are thought to represent the discovery of value that exceeds cost.In this particular example, the value will be generated exactly because Of the cost.The Timberwolves Had he been a $ 15 million player, he wouldn’t have traded with Wiggins. If Philadelphia had a shortage of suitable backup centers for half a year and could justify keeping Horford as a 15-minute reserve, it would certainly have been. In these cases, the quality of the player is almost irrelevant. The fact that Horford was making $ 30 million scared the team that might have rated him $ 20 million. The fear of making such a deal turns the team into a very ambitious seller. Boston knows this very well. Horford’s acquisition was partially motivated by the desire to revoke another large and cumbersome deal, Kemba Walker’s deal.The Celtics In last year’s draft gave Thunder a 16th place pick because of their trouble.

There are some lessons to be collected here, but they are somewhat contextual. Boston knew that Horford would fit into that lineup, as Horford had already spent several seasons as a Celtic. How many teams have been deployed to regain the former expensive veterans? In another world, Walker will probably be healthy, replicating his previous All-Star shape and making the Celtics look stupid. There is no exact, proven and true formula for identifying the desired and undesired ones.

However, there are contextual clues. Paul’s stats for a few minutes playing without Harden in Houston’s last season were on par with his typical average. Horford struggled to fit into the limited power forward role next to Joel Embiid, but prospered as the center of the low Thunder. If you find the right player in the wrong situation, the bottle will be lightning. There is always a risk factor, and having an existing payroll slot of that size reduces the risk to some extent. Boston wanted to abolish Walker’s largest contract. In that sense, Horford’s success was mostly a bonus. He followed the same pattern with the Golden State acquisition of Wiggins. The Warriors landed Russell not only to trade Russell for value, but also to maintain Kevin Durant’s old salary when he left for Brooklyn. When they exchanged him for Timberwolves, they did it primarily to land a pick that would be Jonathan Kuminga. Wiggins was the ballast needed to legalize the deal, but where he was really negative salary to Minnesota, he grew into a player with an important role in the Golden State.

There are similar rehab candidates available this offseason, and while it’s easy to praise the Warriors and the Celtics, both acquisitions carry a lot of risk. Gordon Hayward is significantly overpaid thanks to his durability.He was also given Hornets It’s been two years of almost all-star caliber basketball and has proven to be as comfortable to lead an attack as he’s supplementing one. The versatile wings fit into any roster, and the Hornets, who plan to extend Miles Bridges this offseason, will soon begin to feel the pressure of luxury tax. Mike Conley is the same age as Paul when Houston dealt with him and could easily become a weird guy from a similar dire situation in Utah. Someone will bet on Duncan Robinson to rediscover his shot.

For the past few years, these contracts may have been really cap killer. Is such a concept already possible? NBA team Keep avoiding cap space As a rostering mechanism in favor of trade, exceptions and extensions. Salary cap growth often outweighs the salary increases built into contracts, so numbers that looked huge just a year or two ago suddenly seem much more acceptable. Golden state tax tolerance certainly helps. The Warriors can afford to treat Wiggins like the fourth best player because they can afford to pay three good players before Wiggins. Not all teams are so lucky. It doesn’t have to be if all teams manage the book well and are ready to make sacrifices in the future.

Championship races are an arms race, and as titles are increasingly decided in July, teams seek a wider range of talent. Bad contracts often represent talent that is available at a price lower than a reasonable price. Fertitta’s reported emotions were extreme, but not uncommon at all. Recent history suggests that teams are usually anxious to break out of what they consider to be overkill, but as players such as Paul, Horford and Wiggins reminded us of these Players were once enough to win these contracts. The Sands, Celtics and Warriors understood that and enjoyed the benefits of the season. Don’t be surprised if someone else does it next year.