NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Who joins Purdue and Alabama as No. 1 seeds?

The next time you feel unlucky, pause and pour one into Mabuchi Motoyuki.

In the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event, Mabuchi started his hand with pocket aces. He caught another bullet on the flop. And another one in the river. With his one of the most unbeatable hands in poker, quad his ace, Mabuchi understandably bet the entire stack.

There was only one problem. Justin Phillips had his royal flush. Oddly enough the actor, he the rest of the table, including Ray Romano, gasped loudly when the cards were shown. There was good reason for this. These two hands had a 1 in 2.7 billion chance of occurring at the same time.

So we can’t complain that this week’s Bad Beat is much milder. This is the task of identifying the top 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament today 45 days before Selection Sunday. Like Mabuchi, Purdue and Alabama already have pocket rockets.in some season many kings and queens True Aces are few, but who are the other two No. 1s?

This seemed so easy a week ago when Kansas and Houston were safely in the top line. But then the Jayhawks were blown up at home by TCU and collapsed again in Baylor on Monday night, taking a three-game losing streak. Houston suffered another damaging loss on Sunday, dropping his game in Quad 3 at home to Temple. Last week’s No. 2 seed, UCLA, lost to Arizona on Saturday and he lost to USC on Thursday night. Kansas, ranked 6th overall, lost to Iowa.

So, uh… check?

Take a look at the top-line Boilermakers and the nominees to participate in the Crimson Tide. Reasons to bet and reasons to fold (Thursday afternoon numbers):

houston

Bet: Like the computer geeks who rule online poker, the Cougars are algorithmic darlings. Even after Temple’s loss, Houston still ranks him #1 in NET, KenPom, Sagarin and BPI.

Collapse: Houston won Virginia and beat St. Mary’s at home, but its resume is otherwise a little brighter (Wednesday’s win at UCF gave the Cougars a fourth Q1 chip). AAC isn’t going to offer much of a challenge the rest of the way. Coogs is 6th and 4th in his two most results-oriented metrics, KPI and SOR.

Kansas

Bet: It was a rough run for Bill Self’s crew, with three losses all to top four seeds and two coming off the bench (one in overtime). His 11 combined wins in quads 1 and 2 for KU are the most in the nation, tied with Alabama, and we don’t see a bad loss here against his No. 1 schedule in the NET.

Collapse: Jayhawks doesn’t look like an ace on the efficiency metrics. NET and KenPom ranked 10th, Sagarin ranked 11th, and BPI ranked 16th.

Tennessee

Bet: Volunteers rank second in NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin. And they beat Kansas in the Bahamas.

Collapse: Just three Quad 1 wins are offset by two odd Quad 2 losses (home to Nashville, Kentucky, Colorado).

Arizona

Bet: The Wildcats are 9-3 in their first two quads, with wins at home against UCLA and Tennessee. They make a lot of sense geographically as the #1 seed in the western region.

Collapse: Arizona has lost to three non-tournament teams, including home state Washington, and its range of metrics (11th in NET, 16th in KenPom, 20th in BPI) doesn’t look like the #1 seed. Hmm.

Big 12 Wild Cards: Kansas/Iowa/Texas

Bet: The Big 12 has an amazing six teams on the top four seed line this week, and it feels like the champions of this league deserve the number one seed. These three are at the top of the standings, boasting a combined 17 Quad 1 wins.

Collapse: K-State has some indicators in the 20’s and one in the 30’s. Iowa State University’s profile looks like the second seed at the moment. Texas? Let’s hold out at least until Saturday’s SEC/Big 12 showdown in Tennessee.

OK, it’s time for an ante up. No unreasonable choice here, but we put our bets on Houston and Tennessee this week and thought that in this close group, Metrics would win Commission Day (and give the Vols his one against Kansas). gave a tiebreak of 1). But we’re nowhere near all-in on those picks.

Other quick notes about brackets:

• USC’s win over UCLA put the Trojans on the field and Memphis (top 40 on all major metrics) re-entering the bracket. Want to talk more about your team at the cutline? Good, no, great news: Eamonn Brennan’s indispensable Bubble Watch debuts next week in 2023!

• This week’s Final Four pairings are South vs. East and Midwest vs. West, based on the seed list. You can find the seed list below. An asterisk indicates an automatic bidding modifier for the meeting.

• If you have any questions or complaints, post them in the comments section. You may be lucky enough to get an answer. handle?

(Kevin McCuller of Kansas and Santiago Vescobi of Tennessee Photo: Kevin Jairaj/USA Today)