happy ken pom dot com Release day to all who celebrate.
Or at least the first full day that preseason data has been published, as far as I can tell, Ken Pomeroy put it up on his website late last night, maybe before midnight where you live.
Either way, you’re here to figure out where Marquette To give a point of comparison, the Golden Eagles ended Shaka Smart’s first season on the market at #56 and entered the NCAA Tournament at #48 after starting the predicted season at #87. A simple abbreviation, “KenPom’s top 50 are general NCAA tournament contenders,” indicates that the algorithm does not consider Marquette to be a tournament team this season.
Before we dive into things a bit more, let’s figure out where MU stands within the Big East.
Villanova#20
Clayton, #22
connecticut#27
St. John’s, #37
Xavier#38
Seton Hall #48
Providence, #57
Marquette #76
DePaul, #88
Georgetown#102
Butler #130
Based on my mental impressions of teams in the league this season, I can assume there are a few mistakes in that list. , let’s hack some general thoughts on that overview in the comments section below.
Back to Marquette.
Hit each side of Marquette’s Ball Rankings. KenPom ranks the Golden Eagles with his 78th-best offense and his 71st-best defense nationally. This is where I take my biggest “well, they’re going to be better than this” objection to what the math says.Last year, according to the math, MU ranked 106th in offense and defense and he was predicted to be 67th. They were 64th and 55th. Shaka Smart is piloting the ship, so I’m not particularly worried about attacks. Because he is known for his defense. Last year’s #55 was the worst ranked defense since posting #78 in his second season at VCU. That’s right, it was the team that made it to the Final Four.Smart’s Worst Defense To Drive The Point Home texas In his first season at Austin, they finished at #40.
I understand math is math and this is what it says. Also, I think Shakasmart’s two-time coaching tenure says, “As he gets more comfortable with the job, the team will get better on defense.” So the biggest reason to be optimistic about Marquette this year is based on the idea that he will not only top 71st in his preseason rankings, but beat his 55th place finish last year at the end of the season. is needed.
I would also like to draw your attention to this part. Projection domestically he slots Marquette at the 66th tempo and he plots his MU at 73.0 possessions per game. This is both good and bad. This is in line with Shaka Smart’s prediction that he hopes the team will play faster than last year, when the Big East game ended with an adjusted tempo of 70.9 possessions per game and 70.4 possessions per game. It means that it reflects a statement in some way. But that made Marquette his 25th fastest team in the country last season. If the overall trend of play in the college hoops is to go faster (i.e. how to speed up on two full his possessions while dropping his 40 places), the Golden Eagles will be at the speed Smart prefers. It really matters what you play.
to the schedule!
Recall that there are two different ways to read a schedule forecast. The first is to look down at the bottom of the list to see the projected records. That number shows the most likely outcome of his 30 games listed using thousands of simulations from the season. That means there are situations where they cause big upsets or fall victim to upsets and mixed results, but the most likely of his 30-match slate against these opponents in these places. A more sophisticated version is projection. So Marquette is projected to go 15-15 overall and 9-11 in the Big East. KenPom does not list opponents for non-conference tournaments and will add games when finalized against specific opponents, so he has one game missing from the schedule. I have.Two Possible Opponents for Marquette Fort Myers events that is Georgia Tech When Utah, which are 117th and 72nd respectively. When comparing teams on a neutral floor, you can take the rankings and work out who has the advantage. So MU is probably 4-5 points ahead of GT, with Utes being his 50.1/49.9 type favorite. golden eagles.
Another way to read schedule predictions is by game. Personally, KenPom predicts Marquette will go 6-4 in the non-conference schedule and he’ll go 6-14 in the Big East. Combined, that’s 12-18, three games below him in the big picture projection. Because many games fall into coin-flipping territory. Anything within 10% in either direction of 50% is actually a coin toss game and the winner is favored by only one possession. For Marquette, there are 7 losses and 4 wins that fall within that margin.
Think of it this way: In an optimist’s view, Marquette could easily go seven games ahead and go 19-11 instead of 12-18.
Of course, the pessimistic view is that if the coin toss hits the Golden Eagles, the odds of 8-22 are the same.
The 11 games within the coin toss window are broken down as one neutral site game. Mississippi At Fort Myers, seven at home and three on the road. I’ll tell you so far, the three road games are in DePaul, Georgetown, and Butler, and the NCAA Tournament Caliber Marquette team wins all three of them.
Any questions about what that means? Want to scream that your computer is wrong about Marquette? That’s what the comment section is for.
