We’ve been having lively discussions about these parts lately. golden state warriorsfeels like the perfect time to fan the flames a little more.
So, let’s take a look at how each player who joined the Warriors last year, or will join them this year, ranked in the EPM a year ago. EPM— This stands for Estimated Plus Minus — is an all-encompassing advanced metric from the website Dunks & Threes, widely regarded as the best stats in the NBA.
Not perfect. No statistics. It should be interpreted loosely and not as a strict ranking of players. Still, it’s fun to see where every Warriors player ranks offensively, defensively, and in total EPM. To add some context, I’ve added a player next to the ranking, so you have a barometer of what that means.
enjoy! Then discuss it in the comments!
4th place — Stephen Curry
Aggressive EPM: 5th: +5.4 (between Joel Embiid and LeBron James)
Defensive EPM: 48th: +1.8 (between Chris Paul and Derrick Rose)
Total EPMs: 4th: +7.2 (between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant)
Well, you don’t need nasty numbers to tell you this. Stephen Curry is one of the greatest players alive. Only his three finalists for MVP — Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo — were evaluated ahead of Chef.
It’s also fun to see his defensive improvement show up in the metrics. I don’t think so — but at least it’s pretty clear that he’s become a decent player on the edge of the court.
No. 30 — Gary Payton II
Aggressive EPM: 168th place: -0.1 (between Jock Landale and Andrew Wiggins)
Defensive EPM: 2nd place: +3.6 (between Draymond Green and Mathis Thybulle)
Total EPMs: 30th: +3.5 (between Desmond Bane and Fred VanVleet)
The top GPII rankings tell us two things. First, he’s really good and his loss would hurt the Warriors, and second, especially with roll his players, the advanced metrics could skew the situation a bit. Payton played a lot of minutes in favored games and limited minutes, sometimes not at all, in unfavorable ones. This year, portland trailblazersPayton drops a lot in EPM… but still proves he’s a really, really good player.
No. 36 — Draymond Green
Aggressive EPM: 313rd place: -1.7 (between Reggie Perry and Isaiah Stewart)
Defensive EPM: 1st place: +5.0 (between nobody and Gary Payton II)
Total EPMs: 36th: +3.3 (between Anthony Davis and Deandre Ayton)
The greatest defensive player in the world, folks, and it’s not even close. increase. Either way, you come to the same conclusion: nobody defends like a healthy Draymond Green.
Unfortunately, despite his ridiculous playmaking and great relationship with Curry, Green certainly doesn’t look like some of the better offensive players when viewed through EPM’s lens. He’s still a great player.
No. 40 — Klay Thompson
Aggressive EPM: 34th: +2.4 (between Terry Rozier and Jonas Valanciunas)
Defensive EPM: 127th place: +0.6 (between Avery Bradley and Lois O’Neill)
Total EPMs: 40th place: +3.0 (between Marcus Smart and Derrick White)
Klay Thompson’s inclusion on the EPM list is the most surprising. This feels like a fair ranking for him in a normal year (well, a little low, but close enough). About 1,000 days.
And yet, he’s still rated as a borderline All-Star talent. First, he’s really good. Second, despite his lack of mobility, he has a very solid defensive foundation. And his third (and most important), he still has the gravitas of being the second best shooter in NBA history.
No. 85 — Jordan Poole
Aggressive EPM: 41st: +2.2 (Miles Bridge to Montrez Harrell)
Defensive EPM: 300th place: -0.7 (between Charles Bassey and Tyrese Maxsey)
Total EPMs: 85th place: +1.5 (between Bradley Beal and Andre Drummond)
I don’t think anyone on this list feels the EPM is more in line with the eye test than Jordan Poole. Very good, but not yet a superstar offensively? Bad, but doesn’t it lower the defense of the whole team? Check. Is he the 85th best player in the league? Please check again.
This is just – pardon the pun – check it out.
No. 105 — Andrew Wiggins
Aggressive EPM: 169th: -0.1 (between Gary Payton II and Dwight Howard)
Defensive EPM: 72nd: +1.2 (between Michael Porter Jr. and Kevin Durant)
Total EPMs: 105th place: +1.2 (between Alec Burks and Lauri Markkanen)
Andrew Wiggins has become one of the most divisive players in the league after a great season. Some people think his scoring totals make him a really good attacking player. Others see him as someone who stalls attacks with ball stops and scores with moderate efficiency. Some believe that his objectively good on-ball defense makes him an all-defense type player. Others consider it somewhat negated by his not-so-good help defense.
EPM seems to lean a bit on the pessimistic view, but it’s worth noting that being the 105th best player in the NBA is pretty solid!
No. 116 — Kevon Looney
Aggressive EPM: 159th: +0.1 (between Malik Beasley and Gordon Hayward)
Defensive EPM: 118th: +0.7 (between Nas Reed and Kyle Lowry)
Total EPMs: 116th: +0.8 (between Robert Covington and Yusuf Nurkic)
Statistics aside, I think we can all agree that Kevon Looney is more valuable to the Warriors than any other team. He’s an excellent player, which stands out for the dub system and the chemistry he develops with his players at the core. He’s also more of a complementary work than a focal point.
No. 157 — Andre Iguodala
Aggressive EPM: 409th: -2.7 (between Braxton Quay and Bol Bol)
Defensive EPM: 9th place: +2.8 (between Derrick White and Tony Bradley)
Total EPMs: 157th: +0.1 (between George Hill and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)
Iguodala arguably has the biggest discrepancy between offensive and defensive EPM. I don’t think Iguodala is actually the 9th best defensive player in the league, but let’s take a look at the top 15 defensive EPMs: Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Mathis Thyble, Paul George, Rudy Gobert, Jarrett Allen, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, Andre Iguodala, Tony Bradley, Josh Okogie, PJ Tucker, Marcus Smart, Dillon Brooks, Lonzo Ball.
This is a list of really good defenders. It’s not full of noise.
No. 164 — Otto Porter Jr.
Aggressive EPM: 208th place: -0.7 (between Bruce Brown and Tre Jones)
Defensive EPM: 111th: +0.7 (between Paul Reed and Derrick Walton Jr.)
Total EPMs: 164th place: +0.1 (between Kevin Harter and Evan Fournier)
Porter fits perfectly into the Warriors’ system, and he’s sure to be gone. These numbers may not look good, but they are very solid for his players on the bench. He has 150 starters in the NBA.
No. 221 — Nemanja Belica
Aggressive EPM: 266th: -1.2 (between Davis Bertans and Cody Martin)
Defensive EPM: 150th: +0.4 (between Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope)
Total EPMs: 221st place: -0.8 (between Jalen Hoad and Damian Jones)
I think we can all agree that Nemanja Bielica was not what we expected to be defensively positive and offensively negative when Dubs signed him. I wonder what the offensive numbers would look like if he shot a three in a clip close to his career average.
No. 289 — Juan Toscano Anderson
Aggressive EPM: 391st: -2.5 (between Marquise Chris and Troy Brown Jr.)
Defensive EPM: 122nd place: +0.6 (between Bradley Beal and Domantas Sabonis)
Total EPMs: 289th: +1.8 (between Deandre Bembry and Jonathan Kuminga)
This almost feels like JTA: bad offense, good defense. I would love to know how he would act if given a bigger role. los angeles lakers.
No. 290 — Jonathan Kuminga
Aggressive EPM: 223rd place: -0.8 (between Isaiah Rivers and Reggie Bullock)
Defensive EPM: 359th: -1.1 (between Goga Bitadze and Svi Mihailyuk)
Total EPMs: 290th place: -1.9 (between Juan Toscano Anderson and Nerlens Noel)
I don’t think it’s worth reading too much into the rookie numbers. Not only do you expect them to be bad, they will improve significantly as the years go by. I think Jonathan Kuminga was well above those numbers by the end of the year, but it’s clear he still has a lot of development to do before he can contribute consistently in the rotation.
No. 338 — Jamaican Green
Aggressive EPM: 293rd place: -1.5 (between Derrick Jones Jr. and James Ennis III)
Defensive EPM: 347th: -1.0 (between Cole Anthony and Austin Rivers)
Total EPMs: 338th: -2.5 (between Keita Bates-Diop and David Nuwaba)
The Warriors are betting on two things with JaMychal Green: he’ll rebound to his previous career performances, and he’ll unleash magic by going with him to the small-ball lineup. Those are fair bets.
No. 357 — Donte DiVincenzo
Aggressive EPM: 356th: -2.2 (between Moses Moody and Chris Dunn)
Defensive EPM: 289th: -0.6 (between Xavier Moon and Darren Collison)
Total EPMs: 357th: -2.8 (between Dylan Windler and Jared Butler)
Excited to sign Donte DiVincenzo. But I can’t help but see a big difference between his numbers and Payton’s. Still, there’s no single stat of him telling the whole story, and it’s a reminder that context matters. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, one of the top names in NBA analysis, has repeatedly said that DiVincenzo was his swag in the offseason. Doesn’t mean…and more importantly, it doesn’t mean he’ll look bad here next year.
No. 366 — Damion Lee
Aggressive EPM: 349th place: -2.1 (between Jordan Nuwolla and Eric Bledsoe)
Defensive EPM: 332nd place: -0.9 (between Yves Pons and Jake Layman)
Total EPMs: 366th: -3.0 (between Chris Dunn and Frank Jackson)
Lee will be missed, but his personality and locker room presence are probably more than what he’s accomplished on the court. I still think Dub Nation is over-criticizing him, but I feel these numbers are largely correct.
No. 394 — Moses Moody
Aggressive EPM: 355th place: -2.2 (between Wesley Matthews and Donte DiVincenzo)
Defensive EPM: 382nd place: -1.2 (between Damien Lillard and Josh Jackson)
Total EPMs: 394th: -3.4 (between Austin Rivers and Devin Canady)
Moody was new. Don’t expect big numbers.
No. 454 — Kindery Wetherspoon
Aggressive EPM: 385th place: -2.4 (between Taj Gibson and DeAndre Bembry)
Defensive EPM: 482nd place: -2.1 (between Wenen Gabriel and Kessler Edwards)
Total EPMs: 454th place: -4.5 (between Jordan Nuwolla and Kiefer Sykes)
Wetherspoon will return to the Warriors on a two-way deal, but will be in contention for a spot on the roster. Dubs seems to hold him in high esteem, so hopefully we’ll see something that EPM doesn’t.
No. 497 — Chris Chioza
Aggressive EPM: 503rd place: -4.4 (between RJ Hampton and Ed Davis)
Defensive EPM: 376th: -1.2 (between Trevelyn Queen and Sam Merrill)
Total EPMs: 497th: -6.6 (between Tony Snell and Terrence Ross)
Hmm… I don’t think these numbers will surprise Warriors fans.
