Four teams have been the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference standings since the beginning of December. The Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans are all aiming for his first NBA Finals appearance, three of which are still at the top of the West.
And the fourth member of that quartet, the Phoenix Suns, entered December with a 15-6 record and finished in free fall. Now with star Devin Booker injured and a losing record of 20-21, the Suns head into Tuesday’s showcase. The Golden State Warriors are bogged down in the middle of the Western standings. Moving up a half-game places them in sixth place, avoiding play-in tournaments. Halving a game put him in 11th place and missing the postseason entirely.
Both scenarios at this point show a steep dropoff compared to the start of the season and last season when Phoenix finished in first place. 1 seed with 64 wins and 18 losses.even after disastrous collapse In the playoffs, that regular season dominance suggested the Suns would be in contention again. as i wrote Before this season:
The Suns became the 32nd team in NBA history to lose fewer than 20 games in an 82-game schedule. That’s because the 31 teams so far won an average of 59.3 games over the next season.
In fact, none of the teams with a record of 63-19 or better fell even mediocre the following season, as the worst team won 51 the following season. So if the Suns win less than his 50 games this season, it would mean an unprecedented collapse.
Hello, this is an unprecedented collapse. Since the beginning of December, the Suns have split (and counting) his five-game losing streak and his six-game losing streak. Until last month, their longest losing streak since the arrival of Chris Paul in 2020 was just four when they dropped games three through six in the 2021 Finals.
With both Booker and key role player Cam Johnson injured, and Paul himself injured, the Suns missed out on Sunday’s loss to the Cavaliers, and the timetable for a return is unclear, so Phoenix’s fall is also over. Possibly not. Booker will miss all those games. The Suns’ hopes of avoiding a play-in tournament, or at least the possibility of holding a playoff series again this spring, could end early.
Even with the return of an injured guard, the Suns are resting on a much more wobbly base than before the season. He’s still a good offensive his player at age 37, has an elite assist-to-turnover ratio, but a worthy all Far from the player that was his NBA. A selection from the last two seasons in Phoenix. The new (older) pole has already missed 14 games with a heel injury and more as his hip problems continue. He set career lows when he played:
- Points per game (13.1)
- 2-point field goal percentage (44%)
- Free throw percentage (80%)
- Adjusted true shooting rate (4% below league average)
- Player Efficiency Rating (17.4)
- Attack Box Plus/Minus (1.7)
The Suns as a team have fallen from 3rd to 18th in average field goal percentage last season by Cleaning the Glass. Most individual Suns are shooting at about the same rate as they were last season. Even better with backup Tory Craig and Cam Payne. However, Paul and Mikal Bridges saw a sharp drop in shotmaking or a discrepancy between his actual eFG% and his expected eFG%. eFG% based on Second Spectrum measurements such as shot position and defender distance.
Shotmaking for Returning Suns
| shooter | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| shooter | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | Change |
| Tory Craig | -2.0% | +1.2% | +3.2% |
| Cameron Payne | -0.6% | +1.5% | +2.1% |
| Devin Booker | +7.1% | +7.7% | +0.6% |
| Laundry Shamet | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | +8.7% | +8.8% | +0.1% |
| Bismack Biyombo | -2.8% | -3.1% | -0.3% |
| Cameron Johnson | +5.4% | +4.0% | -1.5% |
| Michal Bridges | +5.4% | +1.6% | -3.8% |
| Chris Paul | +9.0% | +4.9% | -4.1% |
Based on Second Spectrum data
Paul’s poor play has chilling repercussions for future contenders.Even in the Suns’ heyday, their offensive performances have always been a bit erratic. Inefficient shot profile Midrange excellence by Booker and Paul. Still, Phoenix has fallen to 20th place this season after leading the league in midrange accuracy in each of his first two seasons with Paul, according to CtG.
If the Suns can’t score from midrange with an efficient clip, they still take Fast mid-range shots. They’re not making them anymore—they don’t score much, Period. Earning points on line.
Phoenix ranks 29th in offensive free throw percentage and 30th in defense according to CtG. This equates to a net difference in free his throws of minus 6.7 per 100 shot attempts, the worst in the league. By comparison, last season the Suns made just -1.7 free throws per 100 shooting attempts.
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To be fair, the Suns aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently, for two reasons. The first is unprecedented (at least in the regular season) bad luck in close matches for the team led by Paul. In every season of his career so far, his 18-year veteran team has finished with his game winning record (within his five points in the last five minutes of the clutch). They were often the best in the league. For example, last season the Suns went 33-9 in the clutch. It marks his fourth-best clutch winning percentage in the last quarter-century, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
But the Suns are just 5-11 in clutch games this year, the 29th-best winning percentage, and have already lost more than last season. They’re even worse, just 1-8 and Paul on the floor. He certainly declined, but not to this extent, with the Suns’ point differential suggesting they need to win a couple more than they actually do.
The second problem is Booker’s injury. In the past, with a fitter pole, the Suns could survive without a leading scorer. According to CtG, Phoenix scores 122 points per 100 possessions (better than the league’s best offense) with Booker on the floor, and he scored 107 points per 100 without Booker (better than the league’s worst). bad). That split makes him the second-largest among rotation players this season.
Maximum Aggressive On/Off Difference
| player | differential |
|---|---|
| player | differential |
| Nikola Jokic | +16.7 |
| Devin Booker | +15.1 |
| Luka Doncic | +14.9 |
| Stephen Curry | +12.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | +12.7 |
| Domantas Sabonis | +12.6 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | +12.2 |
| Montemoris | +12.1 |
| Kevin Durant | +11.6 |
| Kevin Harter | +11.4 |
| Cedi Osman | +11.3 |
| Damien Lillard | +11.2 |
Among rotating players, based on grass cleaning data
In the same way that the Nuggets and Mavericks struggle if Jokic and Doncic miss overtime, respectively, it’s no shame to struggle without a player this important. But there’s a difference between struggling and going all-out faceplanting, and the Suns are moving towards the latter. The Warriors offer a worthy counterexample: They’ve all but weathered Steph Curry’s absence, going 6-5 since he injured his shoulder, while the Suns are just two since Booker’s injury. Win-nine (if you count his four-minute cameo appearance on Christmas Day).
The Suns’ supporting cast doesn’t feature anyone who can bridge the gap between an injured Booker and a subprime pole. Deandre Ayton hasn’t made any notable progress and still struggles to create his own offense.his Long-term contact aversion Of the 22 centers with at least 20% usage this season, Ayton 21st place The only players at the free throw rate and close to him — Nikola Vucevic and Naz Reed — shoot at least three, but Ayton doesn’t.
The Suns could resurface as a contender if a lot goes well between now and April. If midrange proficiency returns. If they find a worthy win-now match in a trade with Jay Crowder, who is still holding up. rice field. There’s nothing special that has spread across Phoenix over two glorious seasons, if not title-winning.
In his first year with Paul, the Suns made it to the finals. In year two, they were the best team in the regular season, and in year three, it’s not even clear if the window is open yet.
Statistics are up to date during Sunday’s game.
