The final game of the Super Wild Card Weekend pits the NFC South Champions. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Against dallas cowboys.
These two teams reunited in Week 1, with Tampa beating Dallas 19-3 in one of the most embarrassing games of the season for the Cowboys. It might even end up where they are now. After the Dallas defense and Cooper Rush stepped up to save the season, Prescott returned and took the offense to another level while the defense fell back. The Cowboys are now entering the rematch as the road favorites.
The Buccaneers have certainly been one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this season, finishing 8-9 and making the postseason probably thanks to playing in the league’s worst division. Still, participating in tournaments doesn’t matter. They now have the opportunity to play home games and make up for what they have not been able to do throughout the regular season.
So which of these two teams will advance to 49ers next weekend? You’ll know right away. Before we delve into matchmaking, let’s take a look at how to spectate a game.
Viewing method
date: Monday, January 9 | time: 8:15 PM ET
position: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
tv set: ESPN | stream: Hubo TV (Try it for free)
follow: CBS Sports App
odds: Cowboy -2.5, O/U 45.5 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
when the cowboys have the ball
Look at the whole number. The Cowboys recorded him one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, even though the starting quarterback missed his third of the year. They finished 11th in total yards, 4th in points, and 7th per EPA play on the Tru Media edition.If you narrow it down to just games after Dak Prescott’s return from injury, the Cowboys are basically bill Second in EPA per play.
But there’s still something chilling about their attacks. They go through a stretch that looks very bad and can struggle to get the ball to the most explosive playmakers. CeeDee Lamb was targeted five times, while Ezekiel Elliott had 13 touches (35 yards) and Dalton and others had 18 targets combined. Schultz and Cedric Wilson. The Cowboys limped for 307 total yards and he scored 17 points, leaving early in embarrassing fashion.
This season, they’ve mostly avoided those types of games… except for a season booking with the Buccaneers in Week 1. Commander These may have been the two worst games of Prescott’s entire career (according to EPA per dropback, according to Tru Media, they were the sixth and fourth worst). , 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. Lamb has scored on 18 targets in these two games, where he tallied 81 yards on seven catches. Meanwhile, Pollard totaled 41 yards and he scored 15 touches.
Simply put, if the Cowboys have any hopes of winning this game on the road, that can’t happen. , had to be the team that led the league in scoring, scoring at least 27 points in all but one game despite averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. The decline of the offensive line in the second half of the season (and Tyrone Smith’s relative struggles, returning to the right after a Hall of Fame career on the left) led to Rush’s reduced effectiveness and Prescott’s new The aggression found in has become a plus (more explosive play) and a downside (more picks).
The way Dallas wins this game is to focus their offense on explosive players. Ball admissions downfield are in Tampa’s hands throughout the game. Mike McCarthy, Kellen Moore, and his Co. must avoid the temptation to fall back on familiar and safe things (Zeke runs in first and 10, checkdowns to Schultz in the middle, etc.) ), instead trying to impose an advantage. They are participating in this contest.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
The Buccaneers’ offense this season doesn’t look much like what we saw in the first two years of Tom Brady’s era. In 2020 and 2021, Tampa is 7th and 2nd in total yards, 3rd and 2nd in total points, 3rd and 1st in Football Outsiders DVOA, and 5th and 3rd in Tru Media’s EPA Per Play. Checked in. This season, the Buccaneers ranked 15th in yards per play, 25th in points, 16th in DVOA, and 22nd in the EPA.
Issues along the offensive line, including Ali Murpet’s retirement, Ryan Jensen’s knee injury, the loss of Alex Kappa in free agency, Tristan Wirfs’ injury and Donovan Smith’s precipitous decline this season and affected all aspects of crime.
The run game was almost a disaster for the entire season. According to Tru Media, Tampa ranked him 30th in his DVOA on rushing offense, and he was only two of his NFL teams in averaging less yards to contact per carry (1.16). The Dallas defense actually finished the season ranked 5th in the Rush Defense DVOA, but with Leonard Fournette converting his 21 carries into his 127 yards, these two teams were second in the league. The Bucks ran all over them when they reunited in Week 1. (Fournette then averaged 3.2 yards per carry for the rest of the season. His 127 yards against Dallas accounted for 19% of his total rushing yards for the year.)
Tampa also found themselves unable to push the ball down the field in passing games for most of the season. According to Tru Media, Tom Brady averaged 9.06 yards per attempt in 2020. Last season he averaged 8.07 yards, but this season he averaged just 6.83 yards per attempt. . Only 1.0.4% of his passes he moved his downfield at least 20 yards. He dropped sharply from a high of 15.4% during Tampa’s Super Bowl season.It wasn’t until two weeks ago that the Bucks appeared to get the ball downfield. panthers.
the cowboys very Vulnerable to downfield passes in recent weeks, it’s mostly a team targeting cornerbacks stationed across from Trevon Diggs. (If two matchups between these two teams in the last two seasons are any indication, Diggs will overshadow Evans. In those two games, Evans totaled eight catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. ) Dallas tried Kelvin Joseph, Nation Wright, Mackenzie Alexander and Trevon Mullen, but none worked. Xavier Rhodes has been working at the location during practice and could get his first opportunity on Monday night. Brady should be willing to make that matchup with Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, Julio Jones, or anyone else across from Rhodes (or whatever corner the Cowboys throw in there).
The way Dallas can mitigate all of this is by rediscovering the passing rush that disappeared during the season. He played two no-sack matches and had only six total sacks in those five contests. Prior to that, the Cowboys had him averaging 4 per game. (Interestingly, the Cowboys were under pressure consistently throughout that stretch, and they weren’t able to turn that pressure into a sack. difficult.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 26
